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With a handful of exceptions, the Coalition has demonstrated itself to be 'unrepresentative swill' on assisted dying law reform.

It was with tongue in cheek that I recently quoted former Prime Minister Paul Keating to wonder if politicians voting on assisted dying Bills were ‘unrepresentative swill.’ The now-obvious answer to this question has become more than just humorous, with the publication yesterday of the Hansard record of Victoria’s Legislative Assembly vote on the Voluntary Assisted Dying Bill 2017.

How ironic it was that the very day after I quoted Keating’s slight against his then-hostile Senate, Keating himself, a conservative Catholic, would come out against voluntary assisted dying (VAD) reform.

Hansard record makes compelling reading

But, more importantly, the Hansard record of votes on the Victorian Bill in the lower house make for compelling reading.

Figure 1 shows Victorian voter support for VAD (from ANU Australian Election Study 2016 data) by political preference, and MP votes in support of the Victorian Bill (lower house, 2017).

Chart: Victorian electorate support and MP vote support for VAD (lower house, 2017)Figure 1: Victorian electorate support and MP vote support for VAD (lower house, 2017)
Sources: AES 2016; Hansard

It’s quite obvious that Greens MPs (100% v 91%) , Labor MPs (86% v 84%) and minor/independent MPs (67% v 76%) approximately represented the proportion of voter support. (It’s unsurprising that all Greens MPs vote in favour of VAD Bills: it’s Greens policy; while it’s a ‘conscience’ matter for other parties.)

The yawning Coalition chasm

But the yawning chasm of Coalition MPs not representing their own voters (14% v 73%) is even more stark. That’s a gap of nearly sixty percentage points. Surely that would be enough to raise the eyebrow of any conservative voter?

Aside from a handful of Coalition MPs who voted in support of the VAD Bill, it’s clear that there’s generally no real ‘conscience’ vote across the Coalition benches.

The corridors have been buzzing with stories of threats to Coalition promotions and preselections, and threats to preference deals for the state election next year, though of course there’s nothing public and on the record. Just the serene statement that “our members have a conscience vote.” The discrepancy amongst Australian Coalition ranks has been formally uncovered before in university research.

It’s a national story

However, it’s not like this is confined to Victoria. Here’s the same chart (Figure 2) for all state VAD bills across Australia since 2000 which have had a division on the vote — so we know who voted which way.

Chart: Australian electorate support and state MP vote support for VAD (all state Bills since 2000)Figure 2: Australian electorate support and state MP vote support for VAD (all state Bills since 2000)
Sources: AES 2106; Hansards

Again, the largest and most striking gap between voter desire for reform and MPs opposing their voters’ wishes is amongst the Coalition ranks, at a full sixty percentage points short of proper representation.

It’s a similar picture to that published by university researchers in 2008, who found just 17% Coalition voting support in favour of VAD in the federal parliament, too.

As I’ve explained before, the Party leader’s public statements can be ‘persuasive,’ and Mr Matthew Guy, leader of the Victorian Parliamentary Coalition, has made his entrenched opposition to this reform loud and clear.

Inform your own voting

As debate in Victoria’s upper house commences tomorrow, we’ll be watching who’s in favour and who’s against. And we’ll report the voting record to help inform how you cast your own vote at Victoria’s state election in November next year.

In the meantime, here’s the full record of the Victorian Legislative Assembly votes.

Full voting record – Victorian Legislative Assembly 2017 VAD Bill

Ayes

47

  

Noes

37

Allan, Jacinta

Labor

 

Angus, Neil

Liberal

Andrews, Daniel

Labor

 

Battin, Brad

Liberal

Britnell, Roma

Liberal

 

Blackwood, Gary

Liberal

Bull, Josh

Labor

 

Blandthorn, Lizzie

Labor

Carroll, Ben

Labor

 

Bull, Tim

Nationals

Couzens, Chris

Labor

 

Burgess, Neale

Liberal

D'Ambrosio, Lily

Labor

 

Carbines, Anthony

Labor

Dimopoulos, Steve

Labor

 

Clark, Robert

Liberal

Donnellan, Luke

Labor

 

Crisp, Peter

Nationals

Edbrooke, Paul

Labor

 

Dixon, Martin

Liberal

Edwards, Maree

Labor

 

Fyffe, Christine

Liberal

Eren, John

Labor

 

Gidley, Michael

Liberal

Foley, Foley

Labor

 

Guy, Matthew

Liberal

Garrett, Jane

Labor

 

Hodgett, David

Liberal

Graley, Judith

Labor

 

Kairouz, Marlene

Labor

Green, Danielle

Labor

 

Katos, Andrew

Liberal

Halfpenny, Bronwyn

Labor

 

McCurdy, Tim

Nationals

Hennessy, Jill

Labor

 

McLeish, Cindy

Liberal

Hibbins, Sam

Greens

 

Merlino, James

Labor

Howard, Geoff

Labor

 

Northe, Russell

Ind.

Hutchins, Natalie

Labor

 

O'Brien, Danny

Nationals

Kealy, Emma

Nationals

 

O'Brien, Michael

Liberal

Kilkenny, Sonya

Labor

 

Pesutto, John

Liberal

Knight, Sharon

Labor

 

Richardson, Tim

Labor

Languiller, Telmo

Labor

 

Riordan, Richard

Liberal

Lim, Hong

Labor

 

Ryall, Dee

Liberal

McGuire, Frank

Labor

 

Ryan, Steph

Nationals

Morris, David

Liberal

 

Smith, Ryan

LIberal

Nardella, Don

Ind.

 

Smith, Tim

Liberal

Neville, Lisa

Labor

 

Southwick, David

Liberal

Noonan, Wade

Labor

 

Suleyman, Natalie

Labor

Pakula, Martin

Labor

 

Thompson, Murray

Liberal

Pallas, Tim

Labor

 

Tilley, Bill

Liberal

Paynter, Brian

Liberal

 

Wakeling, Nick

Liberal

Pearson, Danny

Labor

 

Walsh, Peter

Nationals

Perera, Jude

Labor

 

Watt, Graham

Liberal

Sandell, Ellen

Greens

 

Wells, Kim

Liberal

Scott, Robin

Labor

     

Sheed, Suzanna

Ind.

     

Spence, Ros

Labor

     

Staikos, Nick

Labor

     

Staley, Louise

Liberal

     

Thomas, Mary-Anne

Labor

     

Thomson, Marsha

Labor

     

Ward, Vicki

Labor

     

Williams, Gabrielle

Labor

     

Wynne, Richard

Labor

     

 

 

 

 

 

 TOTAL AYES

 

 

 TOTAL NOES

 

Labor

38

 

Labor

6

Greens

2

 

Greens

0

Liberal

4

 

Liberal

24

National

1

 

National

6

Other

2

 

Other

1

TOTAL

47

 

TOTAL

37

         

Abstained

2

     

Asher, Louise

Liberal

     

Victoria, Heidi

Liberal

     
         

Did not vote

1

     

Brooks, Colin

(Speaker, Labor)

 

Note: The vote represents 87 of 88 seats. The seat of Northcote was vacant owing to the untimely death of its representative, Fiona Richardson, from cancer.


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Those actively opposing assisted dying laws are Australia's most religious. Photo: Donaldytong

A claim was recently made on ABC’s QandA that at least 70% of Catholics and Anglicans support assisted dying. The claim was challenged and a FactCheck prepared and vetted by scholars. They concluded that some but not all polls supported the statement. I show unambiguously that relevant polls do. I show further, as I have in the past, that opposition is largely associated with Australia's most religious.

Get the full, detailed report here.

Known polls

In 2007, a Newspoll survey found that 74% of Catholics and 81% of Anglicans support assisted dying. The 2016 Australian Election Study (AES), run by scholars at Australian National University, found almost identical rates: 74% of Catholics and 79% of Anglicans. Although a majority of all religious denomination groups support assisted dying, opposition is highest among minor Christian denominations (Figure 1).

adattitudesreligdenomination.gifFigure 1: Attitudes toward assisted dying by major religious denominations
Source: AES 2016. Note: Chr. = Christian

A significant majority of support for assisted dying was also found across all age groups, education levels, income levels, states, and major political party affiliations and religious denominations, with support amongst Australians overall at 77%.

Casting doubt

However, another poll cited in the FactCheck found far less support: the 2011 National Church Life Survey (NCLS). It found just 28% of Catholics and 25% of Anglicans supported assisted dying.

The problem with the NCLS poll is that it didn’t take a valid sample of Australian Catholics and Anglicans. It sampled mostly or only those who frequently attend religious services.

Views vary widely by attendance frequency

Figure 2 shows the level of support amongst the Australian public, by frequency of attending religious services. While just 2.4% of those who never attend religious services oppose assisted dying, 46.1% of those attending at least once a week oppose it.

adattitudesreligiosity.gifFigure 2: Attitudes toward assisted dying by frequency of attending religious services
Source: AES 2016

NCLS poll cannot answer the question

The NCLS results were even more negative than the AES ‘at least once a week’ results. That’s explained by the NCLS methodology. Firstly, occasional attenders were underrepresented, and non-attenders were excluded altogether. Secondly, more church employees (the most deeply committed and aligned with church policies) than others would have participated. Thirdly, responders may have felt pressured to toe the church line because the survey forms were collected by the churches themselves. And fourthly, those who disagreed with the church line would be less likely to participate.

ABC QandA question answered

So we can discount the NCLS poll because it was not suited to answer the question about all Australian Catholics and Anglicans.

On that basis, it is not only reasonable to say that “up to 70% of Catholics and Anglicans support assisted dying,” but to say that “at least 70% of Catholics and Anglicans support assisted dying.”

Religious connections of opposers

But, back to the opposition of assisted dying. AES data shows that 92% of those opposing and 94% of those strongly opposing assisted dying have a religious affiliation (self-identify with a religious denomination) or attend religious services. So, while a tiny minority of opposers had no religious affiliation nor attended religious services, almost all those opposing have a religious connection.

Frequent service attendance entrenches opposition

If we focus in on those who identify with a religious denomination and who disagree with assisted dying, we find that there’s a massive difference in opposition to assisted dying between the ‘at least once a week’ attenders and everyone else (Figure 3).

adattitudesreligiosityopposers.gifFigure 3: Frequency of attending religious services amongst those with a religious affiliation and who disagree with assisted dying
Source: AES 2016

Not only are the majority of opposers weekly religious service attenders, but weekly attenders are more likely to be strongly opposed. This highlights the strong alignment with and commitment to religious teachings, which (with rare exceptions) oppose assisted dying.

If we define the most religious Australians as those who attend religious services monthly or more often and who self-identify with a religious denomination (“Regulars” in Figure 4), and who make up just 15.7% of the population, their attitudes are remarkably more opposed to assisted dying than all other Australians — by a factor of more than eleven to one.

adattitudesregularssum.gifFigure 4: Attitudes by religious service attendance plus denomination affiliation (“Regulars”)
Source: AES 2016

Amongst the 84.3% of Australians who are not “Regulars”, almost all of them (85.7%) agree with assisted dying, and almost none of them (3.6%) disagree.

Demographic differences explained by religiosity

The variation in attitudes toward assisted dying by general demographics is largely explained by religiosity — defined here as ‘the frequency of attending religious services’.

For example, the increased opposition amongst older Australians is explained by their increased religiosity. The same applies to religious denomination affiliation (e.g. Catholics attend services more often than Anglicans), education, urban versus rural residence, and political party first preference.

Religiosity was the only variable that independently explained variations in opposition to assisted dying.

The double whammy — affiliation and attendance

Also informative is the comparison of those with or without a religious affiliation versus those who do and don’t attend religious services. (Australians fall into all four categories.)

Amongst those with no religious affiliation, people who do attend religious services are only slightly less likely (than those who don’t attend) to support assisted dying (-7%), and their difference in attitude is mostly to neutrality.

However, of those with a religious affiliation, people who do attend religious services are significantly less likely to support assisted dying (-27%), and the majority of their difference in attitude is opposition rather than neutrality.

Thus, those more deeply aligned with their religious denomination through service attendance are significantly more likely to oppose assisted dying.

Moderated by personal experience

The 2007 Newspoll study asked respondents if they had personal experience of someone close who was hopelessly ill and had wanted voluntary euthanasia.

Amongst those with no religious affiliation, this personal experience increased support for assisted dying by just 3.7%, because support was already very high: from 90.9% to 94.6%.

However, amongst those with a religious affiliation, personal experience increased support for assisted dying markedly by 15.2%: from 72.4% to 87.6%.

Thus, those attending religious services, yet with close, personal experience of hopeless illness with a desire for assisted dying, were significantly less likely to align with opposed religious doctrine.

The most religious are a small minority

With so much opposition amongst Australia’s most religious, why is overall support for assisted dying so high? It’s because Australia’s most religious are a small minority of the population.

Nearly half (48%) of Australians never attend religious services, two thirds (65%) attend less than once a year or never, and three quarters (75%) attend once a year or less, including never.

Those who attend religious services frequently (weekly or more often) comprise just 12% of the population, while those who attend regularly (monthly or more often which includes the weeklies) comprise 16%.

Religion in Australia has been declining for decades, and the fall is likely to continue (see Appendix A of the full report, here), meaning that support for assisted dying is likely to increase in the future.

Conclusions

I’ve previously demonstrated how all the signatories to a major anti-assisted dying advertisement were deeply connected with religion. The AES and other studies further our understanding of wider public attitudes toward assisted dying in Australia. They show that while a substantial majority of Australians support assisted dying, almost all the opposition to it is connected with religion, particularly amongst the most religious who are a small minority of the population.

Despite the religious connection of those opposed, there is ample, robust evidence that a great majority of Catholic and Anglican Australians support assisted dying, backing the claim made on national television.

Clergy opposing assisted dying are not representing the broader views of their flocks. Perhaps they may not see that as their role, and perhaps this misalignment of attitudes and beliefs is an example of why religion in Australia is declining.

However, reflecting the views of the great majority of the constituency is the role of politicians, who would do well to take note of this robust evidence of a significant majority of support for assisted dying.

Get the full, detailed report here.

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